ECFR’s Ellie Geranmayeh: The European actors should not be dragged into the confrontation between Israel and Iran
A newsletter update by the European Council on Foreign Relations contains the initial insights of its leading expert on Iran
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Following Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran, European Council on Foreign Relations’s Ellie Geranmayeh sent her initial insights to subscribers of the ECFR newsletter, which are free to be quoted:
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran overnight were designed to kill President Trump’s chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear program. This is the biggest military attack Iran has faced since the war with Iraq in the 1980s and is being viewed by Iran as a declaration of war.
Israel states this is the first phase of a military campaign, which could last weeks, aimed at pre-emptively blocking Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear bomb. The Israeli campaign successfully targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and assassinated several senior Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists. Iranian media reports civilians have also been killed.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has made clear that Iran will retaliate against these strikes imminently. Iran is likely to target Israelis military sites directly, and possibly critical infrastructure.
In Iran’s view, there is no way that the Netanyahu government acted without a US green light. President Donald Trump says the US was made aware in advance of the strikes, but his administration has for days distanced itself from Israeli action, framing them as unilateral. The US may however have had a supporting role, and will likely be engaged in defending Israel against Iranian counter-strikes. The US has warned Iran not to target American assets in the Middle East – but it has prepared for such attacks earlier this week.
The unprecedented Israeli attacks came 48 hours before US Special Envoy Steve Wifkoff was due to meet Iran’s foreign minister for a critical sixth round of nuclear negotiations. While some Israeli officials argue that these attacks aimed to strengthen the US leverage in the diplomatic path – it is clear their timing and large-scale nature was intended to completely derail talks.
The attacks came on the heels of a decision by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors to issue a resolution censuring Iran for failing to adhere to its legal obligations related to nuclear activities in the early 2000s.
It is highly unlikely that in these conditions, Iran will proceed with the Omani mediated talks scheduled for Sunday. This official track may now be paused while the military confrontation between Israel and Iran plays itself out.
There is broad consensus amongst Iran’s leadership that there must be a proportionate retaliation against Israel. Over the past year an internal debate took place in Iran on whether the country had made a strategic mistake in not responding more harshly to previous Israeli attacks. This weakened deterrence was compounded with the significant weakening of Iran’s key regional allies in Lebanon and the downfall of the Assad regime has left Iran more vulnerable.
There is real question over the gravity with which Iran can mount a counter response against Israel given the weakened position of Hezbollah in launching strikes across the border. Iran has reportedly launched a wave of drone attacks against Israel, but these are unlikely to cause major damage. Iran is likely to however combine drone strikes with launching missile attacks aimed at overwhelming Israeli air defences.
Iran may also carry out attacks against US personnel across the Middle East, and disrupt flow of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. However, Tehran is likely to hold back from such attacks that will damage its relations with the Arab world at this stage. Given the US insistence that Israel acted unilaterally, Iran will also be weary of playing into Netanyahu’s trap of dragging the US into a direct confrontation with Iran.
In the coming immediate days ahead, European actors should:
Be clear eyed that this was a major attack initiated by Israel, designed to up the ante against Tehran and drag the region into confrontation.
Ensure that they are not dragged into the confrontation between Israel and Iran in ways that can endanger the large number of European diplomats and military personnel in the Middle East.
At the heads of government level, European leaders should combine forces with Arab Gulf monarchies to urgently call for de-escalation from Israel, Iran and the United States. This joint effort between Europe and the GCC states should aim to prevent another major wave of attacks which currently look likely.
European actors should offer to assist the IAEA and Iran with support to prevent any danger to European inspectors on the ground, and to prevent the risk of radiation contamination that could follow from further Israeli strikes.
European governments should step up coordination with the Trump administration and the GCC states to preserve the diplomatic track with Iran, including in the near term keep a back channel open for deconfliction with Iran.